Overall overview of cigarette market
Currently, cigarette sales in most regions of the world continue to decline, but the market performance in the Middle East and Africa is unexpected. The latest data from Euromonitor International shows that tobacco product sales and sales have increased in Egypt, Iraq, Israel, Lebanon, Oman and other countries.
Among these countries, smoking rates continue to rise in low- and middle-income countries. But not all Middle Eastern and African regions are growing cigarette sales. Cigarette sales in Kuwait, Jordan, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have maintained a steady or declining trend.
Cigarette consumers in the Middle East and Africa are mainly men, tobacco control measures are relatively weak, and the number of smokers is on the rise. The World Health Organization estimates that the number of smokers in the region is expected to increase from 47 million in 2003 to 103 million in 2025. Six of the 10 countries surveyed by Euromonitor International ban the use of e-cigarettes. Iraq, Israel and Kuwait allow the use of e-cigarettes. The UAE has only recently lifted the e-cigarette ban. Nonetheless, e-cigarette sales are growing in all of these countries.
Hookahs are still popular in the Middle East and Africa, and some areas are known for smoking hookahs. The number of hookah sales in the Middle East and Africa increased from 80,374 tons in 2015 to 84,241 tons in 2018, and is expected to reach 87,105 tons in 2020.Sales increased from US $ 2.67 billion in 2017 to US $ 3.03 billion in 2018, and is expected to be in 2020 It will reach $ 3.63 billion.
Despite the popularity of hookahs, cigarettes dominate. According to data provided by Euromonitor International, cigarette sales in the region increased from 469.46 billion sticks in 2017 to 473.67 billion sticks in 2018 and are expected to climb to 480.56 billion sticks in 2020. Cigarette sales are also growing rapidly. Cigarette sales in 2015 It was US $ 28.49 billion in 2017, US $ 34.54 billion in 2017, and US $ 37.4 billion in 2018. By 2020, this number may reach US $ 44.02 billion.
As taxes and prices increase across the region, more and more consumers are turning to cheaper hand-rolled cigarettes. Sales of hand-rolled cigarettes in the region increased from $ 256.5 million in 2017 to $ 271.5 million in 2018. According to Euromonitor International's estimates, by 2020, hand-rolled cigarette sales in the region will reach $ 279.9 million.
E-cigarettes are widely banned in the region, but it still has a certain consumer group. Euromonitor International predicts that by 2020, sales of e-cigarettes and other products in the region will reach $ 1.27 billion, up from $ 973 million in 2018.
Some tobacco companies believe that low-risk tobacco products have great potential for development in the region. After the UAE lifted the ban in April this year, British American Tobacco and Philip Morris International announced that they would launch e-cigarettes in the UAE, and Philip Morris International also plans to launch iQOS in Egypt.
Egypt: cigarette consumption increases
In 2018, the Egyptian market consumed 96.25 billion cigarettes, almost four times that of Iraq, the second largest cigarette market in the Middle East and Africa. Cigarette sales rose from US $ 4.7 billion in 2017 to US $ 5.13 billion in 2018 and is expected to reach 2020 It will grow to $ 6.77 billion annually.
Egypt Oriental Tobacco produces 72% of the cigarette market in Egypt, most of which are low-end brands and some are mid-end brands. As the only official tobacco producer in Egypt, in recent years, Egypt Eastern Tobacco has benefited from multiple price increases and tax increases.
Egypt is also the region's largest pipe tobacco consumer market. The country's pipe tobacco sales in 2017 were 34,405 tons, which increased to 35,128 tons in 2018, and is expected to reach 36,583 tons by 2020.
Because of the rapid population growth, smoking rates in Egypt have remained high. In 2019, a survey conducted by the country in cooperation with the World Health Organization revealed that 22.8% of Egyptians consume tobacco in multiple ways.
In recent years, Egyptian consumers have had to pay more for cigarettes due to increased taxes and a shortage of foreign exchange. Banning tobacco cultivation in Egypt means that tobacco leaves must be imported, which makes the cost of cigarette production even more expensive. According to reports, in July 2018, the price of all types of cigarettes in Egypt rose by at least 1.5 Egyptian pounds (1 Egyptian pound is about 0.43 yuan).
According to a document issued by the Egyptian finance department, as of June this year, the Egyptian government's tax target for tobacco is about 58.5 billion Egyptian pounds. In January, the country's parliament passed an amendment that places that provide food or drinks to the public can only sell hookahs after obtaining a permit. It is reported that 81% of hookah consumers will spend 10% of their income on hookah consumption. In addition, most Egyptians who frequent restaurants and cafes smoke hookah, and many restaurants and cafes derive most of their income from hookah consumption.
Egypt has become a party to the Framework Convention on Tobacco Control since May 2005. The country implements a smoking ban in public places. Restaurants, hospitals, schools, government offices and other places explicitly prohibit smoking; prohibits various forms of tobacco advertising and promotion; prohibits the use of terms such as 'low tar', but allows the use of colors that indicate tar levels , Numbers and symbols.
Saudi Arabia: Hookah market develops well
2017Since 2017, cigarette sales in the Saudi market have been declining: in 2016, sales were 31.37 billion, and in 2018 sales were down to 22.7 billion, and this downward trend continues. The reason is that in June 2017, the country's cigarette excise tax doubled. Despite the decline in sales, cigarette sales in the country have continued to rise, increasing from US $ 4.4 billion in 2017 to US $ 5.09 billion in 2018 and reaching US $ 5.24 billion in 2020.
The country's huge hookah market is remarkable: in 2018, sales of hookah tobacco were 24,458 tons, an increase of 450 tons from 2017, and it is expected to increase to 25,300 tons next year.
Saudi Arabia is one of the countries that acceded to the Framework Convention on Tobacco Control earlier, and formally adopted it in 2005. Since 2010, the government has introduced strict tobacco control laws, including a ban on smoking in educational settings, religious places and manufacturing facilities. As part of the tobacco control plan, at the end of 2017, Saudi Arabia implemented a new law prohibiting smoking in private cars, and violators will face fines of up to 5000 Saudi Riyals (1 Saudi Riyal).
5In May of this year, Saudi Arabia emulated Egypt and passed a new rule requiring cafes and restaurants that provide hookahs and other tobacco products to be licensed.
9In September 2018, Saudi Arabia proposed to promote plain packaging for tobacco products. If implemented, Saudi Arabia will be the first country in the Middle East to implement plain packaging for tobacco products.